Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Stock market predictions, forecasts and history. Our Booktip: Charles R. Geisst: Wall Street: A History

With good reason one of our bestsellers is Wall Street: A History
by Charles R. Geisst.

Looking back on how things worked out or didn't, one has
almost perfect knowledge. One can figure out to the cent or
penny what was going on, how and why, where all the money
went and so forth. Predictions and forecasts made yesterday
or longer ago read completely different afterwards, once
facts have established themselves and become common
It is almost needless to mention that history is a graveyard
of predictions, forecasts, crystall ball reading. If only one had
known, or the parents or grandparents had known how some
stock / company had worked out!

And sometime historians are good in identifying future
problems, in cases when history is repeated, or in explaining
how certain problems were brought about and the consequences
they create.

One of the current underlying problems concerning banks
and financial institutions is the deal-making in cases of

excerpt from an interview:
Charles R. Geisst:
"... Wall Street discovered -- probably in the 1960s and the
1970s in the more contemporary period -- that a fair amount
of money could be made through mergers, and it was actually
much more profitable in some respects than underwriting stock."

"In the 1990s, that just became a boomtown bonanza, if you
will, because the deals were upward of between $10 billion and
$40 billion. Even a couple percentage points off that for fees
could make a very good year for the average Wall Street firm."

And here a glimpse at actual company history, how some of them did.
Seeking Alpha recently came forward with a list of the best and the
worst performers at the US stock market, their market capitalization
Changes in Market Cap for Biggest U.S. Companies
July 29

No comments: